Thanks to spectacular performances by their respective Ds -- Chicago's defense and Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki -- both teams with home advantage are off to a 1-0 start in this year's NBA conference finals. Home teams in this position have gone on to win the series 85 percent of the time, an impressively high number that seems to set us down the path toward a Chicago Bulls-Dallas Mavericks NBA finals matchup in 2011.
However, a smart fan would be wise not to jump to conclusions this year, as each of these two Conference finals series is more closely matched than usual. The top three ranked teams in the data-driven TeamRankings. com predictive ratings are now Chicago, Miami Heat and Dallas, respectively, with the Oklahoma City Thunder ranked sixth. Chicago stands only a tenth of a point higher than Miami, though, meaning it's essentially a two-way tie for best team in the league. What's interesting, though, is that none of these teams is a juggernaut from a historical perspective.
In fact, Chicago's league-leading power rating is the second-worst rating for a No. 1-ranked team in the last seven years; the 2011 Bulls even rate as a whopping 1. 6 points worse than the 2008 Boston Celtics. If Derrick Rose and company jumped in a hot tub time machine and traveled back in time to compete for an NBA championship, throughout most of recent history, they would not be the favorites to win.
However, a smart fan would be wise not to jump to conclusions this year, as each of these two Conference finals series is more closely matched than usual. The top three ranked teams in the data-driven TeamRankings. com predictive ratings are now Chicago, Miami Heat and Dallas, respectively, with the Oklahoma City Thunder ranked sixth. Chicago stands only a tenth of a point higher than Miami, though, meaning it's essentially a two-way tie for best team in the league. What's interesting, though, is that none of these teams is a juggernaut from a historical perspective.
In fact, Chicago's league-leading power rating is the second-worst rating for a No. 1-ranked team in the last seven years; the 2011 Bulls even rate as a whopping 1. 6 points worse than the 2008 Boston Celtics. If Derrick Rose and company jumped in a hot tub time machine and traveled back in time to compete for an NBA championship, throughout most of recent history, they would not be the favorites to win.
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